Norwegian climatologists (Førland & Nordeng 1999, Førland et al 2000) are predicting changes in Norway's climate as a result of global warming. Although the changes will vary in the different climatic regions, they will have a major impact on our reservoirs and their biotopes.
More knowledge is therefore needed about the significance of these changes to the management of river systems in general and of regulated river systems in particular. In addition to substantial biotic and abiotic changes, we could also face a number of changes in the uses to which our river systems are put.
Increased water volumes could create new production regimes in regulated river systems, while energy requirements (due to milder climates) and the choice of energy sources and carriers could also change. In conjunction with a deregulated electricity market, this could lead to increased demands for power-plant efficiency and capacity exploitation.
In a wider geographical perspective, drought could also result in a greater need for water and irrigation. All such societal changes could, in turn, lead to changes affecting the habitats of fluvial organisms. In regulated river systems the increase in water volume could be used to reduce the negative impact of climate change. This could be achieved directly, through changes in the river management regime, or technical changes linked to licence renewals, which both increase electricity output and improve biotic conditions, or indirectly, since increased output from power plants in regions with increased water resources reduces the need for new power generating capacity based on water or gas.
The proposed project takes these issues as its starting point, and aims to gain new insight and reduce negative consequences.
Objectives, utility and results
The project shall:
Water inflow, electricity output, reservoir water level and water-flow regulations will change as a result of changes in the climate and patterns of energy production. The project will show how these changes affect fish populations and other biological conditions in regulated river systems. The project will also demonstrate how the environmental impact can be reduced without a significant reduction in hydropower output.
Environmental certification of energy production and environmental taxes on energy carriers will, in future, be increasingly important. In such a context it is additionally important that the environmental aspects of hydropower production in Norway are highlighted and that the flexibility inherent in the system is exploited in ways that benefit the environment. The project will also integrate doctoral research.
Implementation and organisation
SINTEF Energiforskning AS (project management), the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). The project has been divided into 10 sub-projects.