Statkraft’s
Low Emissions
Scenario
2018

The energy sector is in the midst of a rapid transition with profound technological, political and market-based changes. In order to deepen our understanding of market trends, Statkraft develops long-term scenarios that provide insight into how global energy markets could transition in the future.

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Solar and wind power will be cheaper than other technologies

We estimate the power sector globally reaches a renewable share of 70 per cent by 2040.

In 2040 solar power will become the largest source of power generation on a global basis and cover almost 30% of all electricity generation. Wind power will cover 20%.

2040
Growth in renewables and electrification will lower global emissions.
Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2040 will be about 30 per cent lower than today with emissions following a pathway that is consistent with the two degree target.
By 2040, electricity will cover over 30 per cent of energy consumption in the buildings, industry, and transport sectors. The scenario expects that 77 per cent of all new passenger vehicles sold will be fully electric in 2040.
The carbon intensity of the power sector falls by 80 per cent by 2040 as renewables displace thermal generation. Most of the renewable growth comes from intermittent sources, namely solar and wind power.
The need for flexible solutions increases significantly with the growing share of intermittent generation. There will be major differences at a national level.
Countries with a high share of solar power will require more short-term flexibility within a 24 hour period. A high level of competition is expected between the many different solutions that can be adopted. In India, for example, over 80 per cent of the flexibility is expected to be short-term.
Countries with a high share of wind power will require more long term flexibility lasting up to two weeks. There are fewer solutions to solve the long-term flexibility requirement. In Germany and the UK, for example, almost two-thirds of the flexibility could come from long-term solutions.
Countries with a high share of solar power will require more short-term flexibility within a 24 hour period. A high level of competition is expected between the many different solutions that can be adopted. In India, for example, over 80 per cent of the flexibility is expected to be short-term.
Countries with a high share of wind power will require more long term flexibility lasting up to two weeks. There are fewer solutions to solve the long-term flexibility requirement. In Germany and the UK, for example, around 60 per cent of the flexibility could come from long-term solutions.