
Volatile power prices:
Are batteries Europe's new hedge?
Statkraft On-Demand Webinar | Watch anytime
What you’ll learn in this webinar
In this 40-minute expert session, Statkraft specialists explain how Europe’s power markets are evolving and how companies can navigate the new reality.
You will discover:
- How batteries and flexibility solutions hedge risk
- Where the biggest value pools are emerging in European markets
- Real-world case studies from Germany, the UK, and Italy
- How industrial companies are future-proofing their procurement strategies
- How asset owners can unlock new revenue streams
Why this matters now?
Europe just got another reminder: energy security matters.
Geopolitical tensions - from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East - show how exposed Europe remains to global fossil fuel shocks. The continent is still vulnerable to supply disruption and sudden market swings.
But beneath today’s headlines, a structural shift is reshaping Europe’s power system.
Renewables are becoming the backbone of the grid and with them come the benefits fossil fuels can’t offer:
energy sovereignty, competitiveness, and resilience.
As author Bill McKibben puts it:
“Sunlight travels 93 million miles to reach the earth. None of them through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Yet a renewable-led system also introduces a new dynamic: structured volatility.
From fossil fuel chaos to renewable “structured volatility”
Fossil-fuel volatility is unpredictable - driven by geopolitics, supply shocks, and global markets.
Renewable-led volatility is different: it follows patterns. Our experts call it structured volatility, shaped by:
- wind and solar generation patterns
- demand cycles
- grid congestion
- system flexibility
This leads to familiar phenomena:
- negative prices during high renewable output (“Solar cannibalisation”)
- price spikes during Dunkelflaute
- increasing spreads between low and high hours
Bonus: Extended Expert Q&A
During the live session we received many more questions than we could answer in 40 minutes. In addition to the video recording, our experts have also provided additional written answers covering the following topics:
When we pool third-party BESS assets, our optimisation models ensure value is allocated fairly and transparently. Assets are dispatched based on market signals, and flexibility improves outcomes by allowing the system to capture the highest value hours while avoiding uneconomic dispatch. Our approach ensures each asset contributes to – and benefits from – portfolio value, without subsidising others. The optimisation of the assets is done against the wholesale / ancillary services market based on the assets' technical parameters and agreed trading strategy. Statkraft maximises the value of the PPA through maximising the achieved gross margin for the assets. Regardless of the contractual structure with a BESS - whether profit‑sharing or fixed/secured revenues - the portfolio effect for Statkraft is driven by the composition of our asset fleet, which is predominantly solar and wind.
Taking solar as an example: during periods with more negative price hours, PV assets tend to earn less, while BESS typically benefit, and vice versa. This creates a natural offset within the portfolio. As a result, BESS impacts our overall portfolio performance and risk profile, reflecting diversification effects linked to asset mix and market conditions - not value transfer at the expense of individual assets.
Negative prices have not materialised in Italy primarily because the balancing market has a 0 €/MWh price floor. This makes it uneconomic for operators to bid negative in the day ahead market when they can instead settle at zero in balancing.
However, we already see €0/MWh prices in regions such as Sicily, Sardinia and Southern Italy during periods of high renewable output and limited system flexibility. As Italy’s rules gradually align with broader European market practices, sustained negative prices are increasingly plausible.
Looking ahead, three factors make negative pricing more likely:
- Rapid solar PV expansion
- Flat electricity demand
- Storage capacity growing more slowly than renewables
This creates conditions where negative prices may emerge, especially around midday and during low demand periods.
Long duration storage will play a role, but today most market value is concentrated in just a few high and low-price hours. Because the cost of adding extra storage capacity scales roughly linearly, extending duration often delivers diminishing returns.
- The optimal battery size depends on:
- technology and capex,
- achievable market spreads, and
- how the asset fits into local demand patterns.
In practice, 4hour batteries are increasingly plausible, particularly in markets like Great Britain where the current two peak demand shape supports longer cycling windows. Seasonal or weekly storage may emerge over time, but which technologies will dominate — and at what scale — remains an open question.
Because the best spreads are usually captured in the single highest and lowest hour of the day. The second-best hours offer smaller spreads, so doubling duration does not double revenue.
Battery degradation is driven by chemical changes inside the cells. Over time, some active material becomes unavailable for storing energy, which reduces the battery’s capacity. At the same time, the build‑up of reaction by‑products can make the cells less efficient. In practice, the MWh capacity of a battery tends to degrade most visibly, while round‑trip efficiency also declines gradually according to many OEMs. Both effects are interconnected and occur as part of the same underlying ageing process.
This is clearly a very worrying phenomenon on a large scale. We take IT security very seriously.
France’s political landscape is somewhat less stable than in other European countries, but the government’s 2035 energy plan reaffirms a mixed system including both nuclear and renewable energy. While renewable targets are less ambitious than in the past five years, policy direction continues to support ongoing development, though growth may be slower than in other European markets.
Weather risk is inherent in renewable-driven markets. Derivatives can be used to hedge specific exposures, depending on asset type, geography and time horizon, though the details vary by strategy.
Yes. Thermal storage is often significantly cheaper than electricity storage on a €/MWh capacity basis. For industrial companies electrifying their heat demand, thermal storage can be a valuable source of flexibility. Heat stores can complement battery systems, though they typically require substantial space.
As markets mature and competition increases, some value pools naturally compress. That’s why our long-term flexibility and BESS revenue structures are not “set-and-forget.”
We design contracts that combine:
- A bankable downside, often through a fixed availability component
- A variable component linked to realised market revenues
- Indexation or periodic reopeners to adapt pricing as markets evolve
- Diversification across services, not relying on a single product
- Clear performance and availability metrics
This combination balances protection with upside, ensuring long-term resilience as markets change.
In recent periods, non-DA revenues can be expressed as a percentage of day ahead revenues typically and on average falling between 10% and 100% (of DA revenues). Although at times, for example when DA revenues are very low, non-DA revenues can be much higher than that for short periods. Non-DA value includes ancillary services from TSOs/DSOs and intraday re-trading. Importantly, ancillary services revenues are highly locational, and the UK experience shows meaningful variation by region and grid zone.
Contracting is clearly counterparty and risk profiles specific.
- Statkraft is both a renewable energy asset owner and an energy trader, developing and operating wind, solar, battery storage (BESS), and hydropower assets globally while actively buying and selling green power. This dual capability allows us to act as an energy integrator, building bridges between renewable energy developers and industrial off takers through tailored power purchase agreement (PPA) solutions.
- Aligning different needs in the renewable energy market
Renewable energy developers and industrial buyers often have fundamentally different requirements when it comes to timing, technology, pricing, contract tenor, and risk allocation. Statkraft’s role is to align these interests and manage the resulting complexity.
- Timing: investment decisions vs. procurement processes
Developers typically need to secure a PPA at the point of final investment decision (FID) to ensure project bankability. Industrial off takers, however, often require longer internal decision-making processes, including demand analysis, risk assessment, and management approval. These timelines rarely align. Statkraft absorbs this timing mismatch, enabling projects to move forward while giving industrial customers the flexibility they need.
- Technology: Single assets vs. portfolio solutions
Developers usually seek PPAs for individual assets, such as a specific wind or solar farm with defined capacity and production profiles. Industrial off takers, by contrast, require energy solutions aligned with their consumption patterns, sustainability strategy, and power purchasing approach. Statkraft analyses demand profiles and structures customised portfolios, combining wind, solar, and battery storage where relevant to best match customer needs.
- Pricing and Tenor: Bankability vs. Flexibility
Developers typically prefer long-term fixed-price PPAs to support financing and reduce revenue risk. Industrial customers often need more flexible arrangements aligned with their procurement strategies - such as floating prices, shorter tenors, or rolling hedging mechanisms. Statkraft enables this by offering developers price certainty while providing industrial off takers with pricing structures adapted to their risk appetite.
- Contract Structures, Asset Constraints, and Risk Profiles
Contract structures vary depending on the counterparty type and risk profile. Elements such as grid charging rules, asset-specific charging strategies, and operational flexibility can differ significantly between corporate off takers and utility-style tolling arrangements.
When assessing potential PPA opportunities, Statkraft also considers asset-specific constraints, including limited grid import capacity, restrictions related to co-location with generation assets, and regulatory or technical limitations. These factors are fully integrated into contract design to ensure operational feasibility and optimal risk allocation.
- Managing Risk and Enabling the Energy Transition
By structuring PPAs that account for market dynamics, asset constraints, timing mismatches, and contractual complexity, Statkraft manages the residual risks between developers and industrial customers. This approach enables renewable projects to reach investment decisions while delivering flexible, customer-centric energy solutions.
Through our integrator role, we support industrial decarbonisation, improve market efficiency, and accelerate the scaling of renewable energy across Europe and beyond.
At times we will be long flex, at other times we will look to close out our position using derivatives in the market (virtual batteries, high/low spreads etc). We may even decide to take a short position in flexibility if we find the right prices to do so. We take a view on the market in terms of the value of flexibility and position ourselves accordingly.
Our position depends on market conditions. At times we may stay long flexibility; at others we hedge exposure using market derivatives such as virtual batteries or high/low spread products. If we see the right prices to do so, and the timing is right, then we may also take ourselves short flexibility. We continuously assess the value of flexibility and position ourselves accordingly.
Watch the webinar on demand
Power prices can swing by more than €200/MWh within the same day, as shown in our German case study.
What drives these extreme spreads?
And how can businesses turn volatility into a strategic advantage?
▶ Watch the full webinar to learn how batteries and flexibility solutions hedge risk and unlock new revenue streams.

Why batteries are becoming Europe’s new energy hedge

In a volatile market, flexibility creates value.
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) allow energy to move across time, capturing low-price hours and delivering power when prices surge.
This creates multiple strategic advantages:
Hedge against volatility
Store energy when prices are low or negative and release it when prices spike.
Unlock new revenue streams
Participate in balancing markets, capacity markets, and arbitrage opportunities.
Enable renewable growth
Batteries help integrate large volumes of wind and solar into the grid without curtailment.
Strengthen energy security
Flexible systems reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and increase domestic resilience.
In short: Batteries transform volatility from a risk into an opportunity.
Meet the Speakers
-

Christina Louise Lubrani
Lead International MarketingA marketing and communications leader with over a decade in the global energy sector. She shapes Statkraft’s international go-to-market strategy, strengthening positioning and value creation. Previously at Enel and Cognite, she brings cross-industry insight to the energy transition.
-

Annkathrin Rabe
Head of Downstream Origination in GermanyHas over 12 years’ energy-sector experience across strategy, market analysis and PPAs. She structures tailored power solutions for off-takers, negotiates complex contracts and develops new products, advising customers on European renewables and navigating a complex energy market.
-

Matthew Hunt
Head of UK Portfolio Management, StatkraftHas led Statkraft’s UK Portfolio Management team since 2016, overseeing pricing, trading and market risk for a complex portfolio. With experience at RWE, British Energy, Gazprom and Koch, he has guided market cycles and developed widely used virtual wind, solar, peaker and battery products.
-

Marika Savoia
Head of Downstream Origination Italy, StatkraftLeads downstream origination in Italy, structuring energy solutions and long-term PPAs with renewable developers and corporate buyers. With nearly 20 years’ experience, including Edison and EDF Trading, she has helped grow Statkraft’s role in Italy’s corporate and long-term PPA market.